One for the "It's Rigged" Brigade

[frecklers]

Having just come out of one of the worse SnG Downswings I have experienced, I thought it would be a good time to dispense some of the myths that we like to believe result in our losing money.

Firstly take a look at my Sharkscope Graph on Full Tilt and you will see exactly how far things can swing....

When I first started on FTP I ended up doing rather well and then decided in my infinite wisdom to play at a higher level than both my bankroll and probably my capability counld deal with. This resulted in a downswing that I was not bankrolled to deal with and to a large extent resulted in my not playing on line poker for some time.

I took some time out read" The poker mindset" (you will have maybe heard me recommending this book, but for me it is one of the best poker books on the market and a must read for anyone who has experienced tilt and major downswings) and then I decided to play lower stakes SnG's with a bankroll that allowed me the freedom to play for the long term.

For some time I have been steadily building my bankroll at $6 SnG's I'm not setting the world a light but I am in profit. However I recently ran bad to the point where I swung down around $ 300, which at $6 is a big downturn IMO.

The reason..... Who Knows I was playing exactkly the same (maybe) well with some analysis of my actual play perhaps not. I had actually started to compound a run of bad luck with a bit of desperate play, more inclined to draw when I knew I shouldn't trying to force variance to swing back my way..... After All if I couldn;t win with a good hand... Maybe I could win with a bad one lol.

I was on the end though of bad beats aplenty... The two worse


When I flop K55 (holding Pocket K's) get it all in v's AQ and turn 5 river 5

Next Flop AJ7 (holding AJ) All in V's KJ turn K River K

Many other 4-1 + Type beats also in fact far too many to mention.

I can honestly say I was almost turning towards your conspiracy theory and genuinly started to believe it was all rigged.


The upshot, however is I read my book again, evaluated my play and realised it was a combination of bad luck and bad play. Re-Adjusted got my game back on track and over the last few days I have seen things start to turn in the right direction again.


A boring tale perhaps....... But not for me.... As it sure feels good to come out the other side and realise that I can still beat the game and that nobody is out there to get me.

The key to my survival throughout the downturn was the strength of my bankroll TBH and the benefit of hindsight as you will see from my graph. It can swing both ways and sometimes mighty fast.

[travz21]

I feel ya there, brother. Whenever you're on a downswing, every beat you get seems to be worse than any of the ones you get when you're running well. Of course, your perspective is different when you're thinking negatively as you're spewing money everywhere.

One of the biggest things I've learned is that you should try to think positively as much as you possibly can; because once you start thinking negatively, it can change your game entirely. And frankly, you'll just plain have more fun, as well as play better, if you keep a positive mind. Easier said than done.

[DeadBabySoup]

the tricky part of bankroll management is lowing your buy-ins when you're running bad. personally, i try to only buy in for 1-2% of my roll. i'm at $300 now and mostly play the $3 90 seaters. once i get to $350, i'll play the $6 ones. if i drop back to $300, i'll switch to the $3. that said, i will go off sometimes and play over my bankroll. but i've been better about not doing that since i found the 12-hour self exclusion feature

[allthatremains]

Frecklers, you said you went through a $300. downswing at $6. SNG buy-ins. This amounts to 50 buy-ins.

I am only pointing this out because if you followed the Chris Ferguson bankroll management you would have gone busto. I just checked the Full Tilt website and it says 5%(20 buy-ins) to a cash table or SNG and 2% (50 buy-ins) to a MTT.

I believe Chris Ferguson's BRM is fine for him because he is a pro, but I think it's too aggressive for the aspiring player whose goal is to never reload. I have gone through similar downswings but I am extremely overrolled [1% (100 buy-ins) to a cash table or SNG and 0.4% (250 buy-ins) to a MTT].

I have heard others in this forum saying they are way overrolled as well. It saved me from going busto a couple of times.

[frecklers]

I did start my new goal (i.e. not going broke) with around 60 buy in's or $400 and managed have managed with this bankroll. Including the odd freeroll win and my progress on the $6 SnG's my bankroll is currently well over $1000 and so I am playing well within my limits.

I have been tempted to move up a limit and I have played the odd $11 SnG (I play Turbo's normally) with some success, however I do not really want to spoil a good thing.

I am a very solid winner live, but have always struggled to cut it online both at cash and tournament play. I find it real difficult to relate to names and numbers as opposed to faces and so I have to make a real effort to focus on what is happening at my table ( particularly when multi tabling).

So now that I am consistently winning I do not really want to move up and turn my relative success into a deficit. Lets face although I am improving, my ROI is still only around 10% over my last 500 or so games and I do not feel that this is TOO good considering the level of competition.

The trouble is that it is real boring just grinding away at this low level and I know that I have days where I mix it up and bluff with ridiculous consistency just to entertain myself, which will clearly affect my win rate.

I started playing much higher and built a bankroll up to around $4000 previously, then managed to break myself and that was playing some cash, $55 $100 and even $200 SnG's. I reckon I need at least 100 buy ins as a safety net and after my previous experience, I won't be getting any ideas that I am better than I really am in the near future.

Unforunately you do not tend to scrutinise your game too heavily during an upswing and that was my biggest failing in some respects. My success at the higher levels was based predominantly on luck and I was merely seeing the other side of variance. As they say Pride comes before a fall!! In my case That was definitely the case

[Machine_7]

Not so sure what to think... I posted a thread a few weeks back posting the question of whether or not online poker is fixed. After 6 months of losing (roughly 60k - 70k hands) with horrible suckouts I received quite a few responses telling me how idiotic I am and that I must just be a really bad player. 2 months later I am even more convinced...

Last 5 consecutive sessions I have had - all lost to horrible beat after bad beat. 3 nights ago I lost 5 all-in hands while being ahead in all 5 preflop. Even if I were a 50/50 odds favorite the chances of this happening are 3% - and I was well ahead in all 5. Yes, it happens. I know. Very likely especially when I have not hit a single lucky streak in the last 100 sessions. Not to say I have not had a winnign session, just not a "lucky streak" that lasts more than one session. I have had a session or two making money, and then 4 to 5 losing by impossible suck-outs and set-ups to the point where it is not even frustrating, it is just funny.

2 nights ago I experienced a very likely occurrence for someone like myslef who is a very bad player - came up against 5 (yes five) two-outers in a single session. All you poker pro's out there - i know this is something that happens all the time. I do admit that 2 of them were in the same hand - very deep in a NL tourny I was sitting pretty, 10th place out of 900 people buy-in. AA - I am up against pocket tens and pocket jacks all-in preflop. Both a J and a 10 hit on the flop. I think less than 1% chance they both hit. Never mind though. I am more amazed that they both hit on the same night as 3 other 2-outers hit.

Tonight I lost 3 more hands consecutively all-in when I was ahead. Just for kicks I played my last $7 in blackjack. I won 4 hands and lost 13. Likely...

How does one "change" their game or "adjust" their play to something that should almost never happen, but it happens repeatedly over and over again, session after session. Voodoo? Black magic??? There is no beating horrible luck or adjusting to runner runner flush that hits 50% of the time instead of 5%. There is only getting all your money in the pot when you are ahead and assuming eventually the luck will even out. Not sure any book or any skill level will make up for mysterious luck that somehow goes on for 6 to 8 months and 70k + hands. I either have a black cloud or online poker is a little shady.

[travz21]

How many times do you have to tell the same sob story over and over?

[phaul]

Frecklers, you said you went through a $300. downswing at $6. SNG buy-ins. This amounts to 50 buy-ins.

I am only pointing this out because if you followed the Chris Ferguson bankroll management you would have gone busto. I just checked the Full Tilt website and it says 5%(20 buy-ins) to a cash table or SNG and 2% (50 buy-ins) to a MTT.

I believe Chris Ferguson's BRM is fine for him because he is a pro, but I think it's too aggressive for the aspiring player whose goal is to never reload.

No, because BRM involves moving down when your bankroll isn't big enough. PLaying any decent bankroll strategy you should never go bust unless you're playing at the minimum possible stakes online. Strategies with fewer buyins just require you to move up/down more readily.

Also, it's way more important for a pro to exercise good bankroll management than the aspiring player; he can't really afford to reload his bankroll of several million just like that.

[phaul]

Not so sure what to think... I posted a thread a few weeks back posting the question of whether or not online poker is fixed. After 6 months of losing (roughly 60k - 70k hands) with horrible suckouts I received quite a few responses telling me how idiotic I am and that I must just be a really bad player. 2 months later I am even more convinced...

Hmmm, I find your sample size hard to believe when in your other thread you said this only 2 months ago:

"My sample size is roughly 5,500 cash hands, mainly $0.50 / $1.00 NL, and 7,000 tourney hands, 50/50 mix of heads up and 9 man Sit and Go's."

You went back and deleted all your posts except the OP but luckily I had quoted you on this. I highly doubt you've played at least 50k hands since then given your previous hands/day. Also, if you know how many hands you've played, then you know exactly how many, not within a 10k range. If you're still talking about tourneys/SnGs in terms of number of hands, I've pointed this out before, it's irrelevant. Talk about how many tourneys you've played. Can I ask how you know you've played "roughly 60k - 70k hands"?

Edit: Lol I just noticed it changes from

After 6 months of losing (roughly 60k - 70k hands)

to

goes on for 6 to 8 months and 70k + hands.

Which is it? Are you making these figures up?

[deathcard71]

How does one "change" their game or "adjust" their play...

this is the only part of your entire post that everyone should read... yourself included.

Phil Ivey was asked in an interview, "how do you become a great poker player?"
his response, "think of different ways to play a hand".

we certainly don't get better by complaining about badbeats. we get better from analyzing hands.

[frecklers]

2 nights ago I experienced a very likely occurrence for someone like myslef who is a very bad player - came up against 5 (yes five) two-outers in a single session. All you poker pro's out there - i know this is something that happens all the time. I do admit that 2 of them were in the same hand - very deep in a NL tourny I was sitting pretty, 10th place out of 900 people buy-in. AA - I am up against pocket tens and pocket jacks all-in preflop. Both a J and a 10 hit on the flop. I think less than 1% chance they both hit. Never mind though. I am more amazed that they both hit on the same night as 3 other 2-outers hit.

I am not quite sure the point you are making here. Firstly this is NOT a 2 outer as preflop there are a range of ways that either hand could beat you apart from hitting a set.

As it were you stand as having a 66% of coming out of the hand a winner or 34% chance of losing the hand. This means that you can expect your AA to lose 1 in 3 times or VERY FREQUENTLY in this situation.

You cannot analyse the specific result of a particular hand as that result is only 1 result in a whole range of possibilities. The result in this hand was merely one of the 34% of ways in which you could lose the hand...Nothing more, Nothing less

[allthatremains]

No, because BRM involves moving down when your bankroll isn't big enough. PLaying any decent bankroll strategy you should never go bust unless you're playing at the minimum possible stakes online. Strategies with fewer buyins just require you to move up/down more readily.

Also, it's way more important for a pro to exercise good bankroll management than the aspiring player; he can't really afford to reload his bankroll of several million just like that.

You are correct that if you continue to move down in stakes when you don't have enough buy-ins it should stop you from going bust. But there are other factors to keep in mind which may suggest it's better to "pad" your bankroll before moving up so there is less risk of ever moving down.

For example, some sites charge a higher % rake when playing .10/.25 compared to .25/.50. If your bankroll says it's time to drop to .10/.25, not only is it a kick to your ego/confidence, but now you have to win more just to break even because of the higher rake.

Another drawback to moving down is you will not likely accumulate as many points or qualify for as many freerolls and promos. These are all effectively another form of rakeback and will cost your bankroll as well.

In the end your effective rake (after rakeback, points, freerolls, promos, etc.) could jump from 2% to 4% by dropping down a level, making it even harder to win. In theory some of this will be offset by the easier competition, but this is hard to measure.

[frecklers]

You are correct that if you continue to move down in stakes when you don't have enough buy-ins it should stop you from going bust. But there are other factors to keep in mind which may suggest it's better to "pad" your bankroll before moving up so there is less risk of ever moving down.

For example, some sites charge a higher % rake when playing .10/.25 compared to .25/.50. If your bankroll says it's time to drop to .10/.25, not only is it a kick to your ego/confidence, but now you have to win more just to break even because of the higher rake.

Another drawback to moving down is you will not likely accumulate as many points or qualify for as many freerolls and promos. These are all effectively another form of rakeback and will cost your bankroll as well.

In the end your effective rake (after rakeback, points, freerolls, promos, etc.) could jump from 2% to 4% by dropping down a level, making it even harder to win. In theory some of this will be offset by the easier competition, but this is hard to measure.

You are exactly right and this is one of the reasons I started at $6 SnG's and rolled myself to cope with downswings straight away.

Just as an example the $1 SnGs on FTP have a $0.25 or 25% rake

[Machine_7]

4 All-IN's today, 2 head's up tourneys.

Me / Opponent

AK / 68 off (???)
77 / 8J off (???)
22 / AK
AJ / 88

Lost all 4. How do you make huge calls with the first two hands above?

The first his his 8 on the flop, the second his J. OK, possible... third hand hit his A and K. Fourth hand flopped 6,7,9 and turned a J. Like clockwork.

Even losing all 4 hands possible... but... every day???

Both tourneys I am getting raised preflop only when I have a really poor starting hand.

Hands where opponents fold preflop were rare, but included when I was sitting on AJ, AK, AA, and KQ in the last game. First game seemed very similar. I never once got raised preflop when I was sitting on a premium starting hand, or might have had a re-raise possibility. I also never got called when I hit the flop pretty well in either tourney.

Is this seriously possible day after day after day??? Played hundreds of hands today, I know I need ot play 100,000,000 to get a proper sample size...

[C8H10N4O2]

Your first mistake was every calling an all-in with 77off... I would only call an all in there with 77 suited.

[frecklers]

4 All-IN's today, 2 head's up tourneys.

Me / Opponent

AK / 68 off (???)
77 / 8J off (???)
22 / AK
AJ / 88

Lost all 4. How do you make huge calls with the first two hands above?

The first his his 8 on the flop, the second his J. OK, possible... third hand hit his A and K. Fourth hand flopped 6,7,9 and turned a J. Like clockwork.

Even losing all 4 hands possible... but... every day???

Both tourneys I am getting raised preflop only when I have a really poor starting hand.

Hands where opponents fold preflop were rare, but included when I was sitting on AJ, AK, AA, and KQ in the last game. First game seemed very similar. I never once got raised preflop when I was sitting on a premium starting hand, or might have had a re-raise possibility. I also never got called when I hit the flop pretty well in either tourney.

Is this seriously possible day after day after day??? Played hundreds of hands today, I know I need ot play 100,000,000 to get a proper sample size...

Have you won ANY hands?

[phaul]

4 All-IN's today, 2 head's up tourneys.

Me / Opponent

AK / 68 off (???)
77 / 8J off (???)
22 / AK
AJ / 88

Lost all 4. How do you make huge calls with the first two hands above?

The first his his 8 on the flop, the second his J. OK, possible... third hand hit his A and K. Fourth hand flopped 6,7,9 and turned a J. Like clockwork.

Even losing all 4 hands possible... but... every day???

Both tourneys I am getting raised preflop only when I have a really poor starting hand.

Hands where opponents fold preflop were rare, but included when I was sitting on AJ, AK, AA, and KQ in the last game. First game seemed very similar. I never once got raised preflop when I was sitting on a premium starting hand, or might have had a re-raise possibility. I also never got called when I hit the flop pretty well in either tourney.

Is this seriously possible day after day after day??? Played hundreds of hands today, I know I need ot play 100,000,000 to get a proper sample size...

Can you please respond to my post above?

[allthatremains]

4 All-IN's today, 2 head's up tourneys.

Me / Opponent

AK / 68 off (???)
77 / 8J off (???)
22 / AK
AJ / 88

Lost all 4. How do you make huge calls with the first two hands above?

The first his his 8 on the flop, the second his J. OK, possible... third hand hit his A and K. Fourth hand flopped 6,7,9 and turned a J. Like clockwork.

Even losing all 4 hands possible... but... every day???

Both tourneys I am getting raised preflop only when I have a really poor starting hand.

Hands where opponents fold preflop were rare, but included when I was sitting on AJ, AK, AA, and KQ in the last game. First game seemed very similar. I never once got raised preflop when I was sitting on a premium starting hand, or might have had a re-raise possibility. I also never got called when I hit the flop pretty well in either tourney.

Is this seriously possible day after day after day??? Played hundreds of hands today, I know I need ot play 100,000,000 to get a proper sample size...

Look up your opponents stats on sharkscope/officialpokerrankings/etc.

If your opponent has a losing record, he probably does this all the time and sometimes gets lucky.

If your opponent has a winning record, follow him around to a few tables as an observer. If he plays decent poker, he may have just trying someting odd against you. If he has a winning record and gets away with this type of play all the time, you may have a case against him and should investigate further.

[Machine_7]

Allthatremains, thanks this is a very useful tip and idea. I will jot down the "shady" characters and try tracking them to see if they win more shady hands, calling all-ins with J 7 off or 6 8 off. Of course I use notes on them. Funny thing is, I have been playing head's up tourneys pretty religiously at the same steaks for about 6 months. I rarely play the same players more than a few times which makes me wonder... why would you not play many of the same players time and time again?

Frecklers, yes I have won many hands, even sucked out on people my share of times when I thought I was ahead but was not. There is absolutely no doubt - I win tourneys and cash games too. But then I will go on a massive losing streak losing 8 to 10 head's up tourneys in a row. While a few are legit, many will be caused by repeated highly unlikely suckouts that just never happen in live games. I am very confident of my game and know that losing 10 tourneys in a row happens to all good players at some point, but theoretically it should happen very infrequently. I have had it happen 3 or 4 times in the last 6 months.

Phaul, I first wrote about an incorrect sample size because I had been using pockertracker software, but after uploading an upgrade I could no longer get it to function properly, so I removed it and re-downloaded it, losing all my initial hand history. I was using the 60 day free trial and when it expired I could no longer access the data and have not renewed since I play mostly head's up now, and do not find it quite as useful for head's up play. But I had played roughly 10,000 hands in the month before losing the data, and played roughly 10,000 hands the following 30 days. Since I still play the same amount of poker I am extrapolating to assume 70k+ in 8 months since I have been playing somewhat regularly at the same pace. It may be plus or minus a little but I don't see that having any relevance. For me, having even a single losing session where I lose 20 of 27 hands where I was ahead preflop is nearly impossible or at least highly unlikely. Remember this is head's up... Repeat that four times a week and it is just funny.

Finally, I took a pool at a live poker table a few days ago. Of the ten people at my table, 5 of them had played online at some point and have all quit, all agreeing it is somewhat fixed or shady. All five players had experienced very large gains right after their initial deposit, and experienced what they felt were very unlikely losing streaks after making their first withdrawel. This was exactly the case with me as well. Just an interesting side note.

I think that changing your poker strategy because you seem to be encountering incredibly unlikely suckouts is rediculous and could lead to even more losses. Getting all your money in when you have the highest percentage chance of winning the hand will always be the recipe for winning poker that I pursue. Finding what is causing the suckouts is where I will be spending my efforts, not changin my game. Maybe examining the world of poker mojo too...

I do appreciate your guys' feedback ,whether you agree or not, it is an interesting discussion.

[phaul]

I feel you should buy PT3 or HEM. If it is as you say then your all-in EV should be ridiculously high in comparison to your all-in winnings. It would be the best, and most importantly, impartial, evidence you could get. If I were you I'd want to do this for my own peace of mind anyway, to prove that I wasn't just imagining it and was actually crap.