10NL: AQs 3-bet Pre-flop OOP. Missed flop.

[frob23]

OK... time to post a hand for commentary. Tell me if I'm going to be throwing away money if I keep playing like this.

This is 27 hands into the session. All players are unknowns to me except for the hands I have just played with them. The player on the Button in this hand has been making these really large pre-flop bets often. This is probably the 4th or 5th time I have seen him make a pre-flop open-raise from 4.5xBB-9xBB. The standard at the table, seems to be 3-4xBB from the way the others are playing. These large bets rarely get called and the couple of times they were called, the other player folded to what was likely a standard continuation bet.


Merge Network $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 Players

1: BTN: $10.51
2: Hero: $12.31
3: BB: $2.55
4: UTG: $2.90
5: CO: $12.95

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.15.

Flop: ($3.60) 2 9 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80

BTN is raising a bit too often to expect super-premium hands in this spot. But this is a horrible flop for my hand. And I don't know the range of hands that the BTN will call a 3-bet here since no one else at the table has stood up to him yet. I hate checking because we really aren't able to call a bet here. I really wish I had been in position when I picked up this hand and stood up to the BTN because it puts me in a real uncomfortable spot on the flop no matter what I do.

I decided, that I was leading the flop here and then giving up on the hand -- barring some miracle turn and river. If raised, I just have to let it go. And if he calls, I can't double barrel the turn because the pot is too large to fold if he raises.

This is a lot of money to put in a pot without a pair or even a real draw to anything. Should I have played it differently? What about the bet-sizing?

Is a more passive line, calling pre-flop and check/folding this flop, a mistake?

[Wyte22]

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.15.

Flop: ($3.60) 2 9 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80



Kind of a weak re-raise, and this is why. You said he's been raising 4.5 to 9x BB. So in theory, he just raised 6x BB back into you. you only re-raised ~3x his raise, but why didn't you raise more? Big PF raiser, tend to call big pre-flop re-raises if they have a reasonable hand, this is because they are loose and see well, it's only X amount more for me to call.

If you raised it to $2.50, cutting down the effective stacks to around $7.50. Your still more than likely going to get a call (you raised only slightly over 4x his raise, he'll call 4x just as often as 3x, unless he is just being stupid, in which case, he wouldn't call either re-raise).

So the pot will be $5.10 with Effective stacks being $7.50.

Now you miss the flop, but you have 6 outs to the overs, and 2 backdoor draws. Say you have effectivly 7 outs (count the running flush as 1/2 out and the running str8 as 1/2 out, since they are only partial outs).

Your SPR is around 1.5 meaning you are committed to this if you hit 2 clubs, a Q, or A. You can't fold any of those profitably anymore, all in is the only option.

The way you played it, your SPR was higher (still under target SPR but kinda high still, the lower your SPR is the better), of around 3. So moving all in will be hard to do on the flop if you miss, so will calling a shove when you Cbet, because even though you have techinically crossed the committment threshold with the Cbet on the flop, you can still fold, and it wouldn't be a horrible play.

but graviting to the SPR 1.5, you can safely Cbet all in on the flop, and it leaves him with a choice, do I call and risk my entire stack ( I am very sure the flop missed most of his range, but hands like A9, JT, AK [which he isn't calling an all-in cbet with, espically since you three bet] etc.). Ya it's a risky play but short handed play is sometimes about making bold plays, hence the varience is higher.

As played, I wouldn't Cbet the flop, but I would let him make a bet and check raise him all-in. At best, he folds, at worst, your drawing to 6 real outs and 2 sets of partial outs. If you check-raised him all in on the flop, there isn't a whole lot that'd he play for all in that wouldn't 4 bet you PF (he doesn't seem like the type to flat AA-JJ pf in the face of a 3bet, but it is just very unlikely, but not impossible).

It will be a higher risk play (around 7-8% more risky, in EV terms) but the extra money in the pot will compensate, and the fact that you are making a power play to shorten his range will help to. Sometimes, the highest EV plays are not always the right one at that time.

the check-raise will not work if you'd have raised it to $2.50 or higher because any bet he moves, and you push, will give him great odds to where he will be forced to call with greater than 2.2 to 1 odds, all across the board and he will be committed to his hand no matter what he holds (espically true if he hold something like 44 or 55). At that point it is either check/fold on flop or all in on the flop.