Min-Raised on Scary Flop?

[Silent_Ac3s]

Stage #1589439918: Holdem No Limit $0.50 - 2009-08-15 20:10:03 (ET)
Table: DRAPER DR (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 6 - TURINGTEST ($66.54 in chips)
Seat 2 - JZHEN0820 ($92.15 in chips)
Seat 3 - SILENT_AC3S ($54.55 in chips)
Seat 4 - NADEGDA ($57.40 in chips)
Seat 5 - SPECEDTEACH ($53.26 in chips)
JZHEN0820 - Posts small blind $0.25
SILENT_AC3S - Posts big blind $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SILENT_AC3S [Kc Kd]
NADEGDA - Calls $0.50
SPECEDTEACH - Calls $0.50
TURINGTEST - Calls $0.50
JZHEN0820 - Calls $0.25
SILENT_AC3S - Raises $2.50 to $3
NADEGDA - Folds
SPECEDTEACH - Folds
TURINGTEST - Calls $2.50
JZHEN0820 - Calls $2.50
*** FLOP *** [8h 9s 5s]
JZHEN0820 - Checks
SILENT_AC3S - Bets $7
TURINGTEST - Raises $14 to $14
JZHEN0820 - Folds
SILENT_AC3S - ?


So I'm already mad at myself that I only raised to $3 pre, usually I would raise to $3.50 or $4 here. Not sure what happened, just a mistake. But putting that on the side, this guy TURINGTEST was running with a VPIP of 30 and a PR of 10 for 100+ hands. Although, he tightened up quite a bit post flop.
After his min-raise on the flop, what range do you put him on here?
How would you play the hand after?

[Tehsauce]

From the looks of things he was set mining and caught. Hard to get away from the hand no matter how you look at it, only about 100BB deep, stacking off here 85% of the time. If your read was strong enough that he only reraises and becomes agressive when he lands a monster, I could see folding.

[RiverstarsVictim]

Unless the blinds have been playing back at any of villains previous button raises I would expect him to raise pre-flop with 88 and 99 and quite possibly even 55 so I dont really expect a set here. Your small PFR has basically priced him in for alsorts of junk hands like off-suited connectors or suited gappers so top 2 pair is possible as is flopped straight but I hate his min raise, it just seems pointless especially if he can put you on an overpair. He could've hit part of the board with either GS or FD or both and is hoping his min-raise will buy him a free card on the turn. Without any further solid reads on how he plays big hands or draws on the flop I guess I'm shoving here simply because I can't credit him with a set. In future put in a decent sized PFR, especially when you're playing the rest of the hand OOP.

[travz21]

It depends how good you think the guy is. Wait, he minraised, so he can't be good. Puke and shove.

[RAW_FORCE]

I really think folding is better than shoving here.

Your hand is very much face up as an overpair after you pop the limpers and fire out a good sized cbet into a 3way pot on the flop. I think he has combo draws, sets, two pairs, and i guess the straight is perfectly plausible too. You give him the option to make an easy fold of any one pair hand that you beat and get it in with all the hands that crush you and are at worst flipping with you. I would shit myself if he's ever bluffing here being 30/10 and having "tightened up a bit postflop". What is his AFq?

I did some work on pokerstove and if we want to be generous we can say you have 24% equity against his range of hands that will call your shove. There is $10 in the pot preflop, and now $21 has been put in on the turn for a total of $31. You have $44.55 behind after investing $10 so it would cost you $44.55 to get 24% equity of a $113.10 pot, $110.1 after rake.

.24(110.1) = $26.42.

Thus you lose $18.13 in EV if you go allin and he calls based on my range.

If you go allin and he folds you gain $10 + $14 + $7 = $31, $29.1 after rake

You gain $29.1 in EV if you go allin and he folds.

Since the expected value of folding your hand is always 0 we can use the numbers above to arrive at the conclusion that he must fold [18.13/(18.13+29.1)] 38.4% of the time for you to breakeven compared to simply folding. Now the only work is to decide if he will.

Obviously nobody does this math in-game but I like to do it after my sessions sometimes to get a better feel for the spots I get myself in. After looking at more of these "problems" it becomes easier to estimate the correct play in-game so, at least for me, it is beneficial.

All of this is based on hand ranges which I assigned with very limited info on the villain so it could be total trash or spot on depending on the accuracy of this range.