Set mining

[str83dge]

Okay i've got a question for you folks. When set mining and faced with a raise i realize you need 7.5 to 1 pot odds but how do you calculate after a raise?
Example: Hero limps in mid. pos. for .5 an Villain in late pos. min. raise's 3xbet to 1.5.
Do you calculate that you only need 7.5 in pot to jusify the additional 1.0 that was raised or do you need a full 11.25 to make the call.
I'd appreciate all opinions.

[travz21]

You just need 7.5 to 1 pot odds. In that situation, the pot is around 2.75 and you need to call 1. That would be 2.75 to 1 pot odds. You also have to figure in the implied odds, which isn't really applicable to the math side besides just guessing if you'll win enough post flop to dictate if you can call pf, even though you're priced out pot odds wise.

A lot of times people overestimate how much their implied odds are, so in general it's better to just fold if faced with raises out of position with a small pocket pair. I find it better to not even limp in the first place if you're out of position, so I'll fold or raise, depending on the table dynamics, stack sizes, etc. Set mining can really hurt a person's winrate if they treat it the wrong way, which is common.

[MikeyEl]

To piggyback travz's reply, I was faced by a person who was multi tabling (he was at 3 of my tables, so who knows how many he was sitting at), and through 500 hands had 7/2/24 stats on my hud. He was breakeven at two of my tables (most likely down and had reloaded back to max buy in), and was up 1 buy in at another. He couldn't have been a more obvious set miner too. I checked down two pots with him where we both had mid pps. I decided to look up his stats, and he was a HUGE loser over about 500,000 hands. Moral of the story: solely set mining is NOT a profitable way to play, unless your goal is to get as much rakeback and collect as many Comp. Points as possible.

As far as calculating pot-odds with a low/mid pp when facing a raise to your limp (or a 3 bet to your raise) the first thing I look at is the aggressor's stack (assuming I am full-stacked). If he has 60+BBs in his stack, I am willing to call his raise/3bet. If I am facing a raise and some flat-calls, I am even more excited to call his bet, but only if I am fairly certain that there will not be any more raises (ie - I am last to act, or the remaining players are passive). The key is to see the flop for a small entry fee, if there are limpers/flat callers, they are just juicing up the pot for your small entry fee.

I DO NOT like to call raises from short stacks (without any other reads on the villain) because of their tendency to go all in with just about anything. I consider anyone sitting with ~40BBs to be a short stack. I feel more comfortable calling their raise with A/K than I do with a low/mid pp, simply because I feel most low stake short stackers range is: any pp, AJ+.

That's my $0.02.

[MikeyEl]

To be clear, when i said "As far as calculating pot odds" I meant "as far as calculating IMPLIED pot odds." And I feel this way because at the lower stakes people are content getting all their money in the middle with TPTK, or even TPGK (especially if they are the aggressor). So, if you hit your set, it is highly likely that you have the best hand, and if the other person in the pot has TPTK or an overpair, you are probably going to get a lot of his chips.

So to answer your question:

If you're objective is to set mine your opponent, I would check out his stack size and either call or fold based on the criteria I expressed in my first post. There doesn't have to be 7.5 or 11.25 in the pot at the time you call his raise. (After he has raised, I think the correct number is closer to the $8.5, because the odds of you hitting your set (or quads) are 7.5:1 aka 1 in 8.5, and your original call is dead money in the pot, you have to calculate your odds based off of the new entry fee 'Will calling this dollar bet yield to me ~$8.5 over the long run?' However, if you are deciding whether limp/calling any 3x raise as a default move is profitable over the long run, i think you will want the number to be closer to $12.5)

The only way you can be sure the pot can grow to at least $7.5 is if his stack can support such a pot, which is why i look at his stack size before calling with the plan of set mining. If it is impossible for the pot to grow to that size, you will be losing money over time.

Another thing to keep in mind is that, even though the odds of you hitting a set (or quads) on the flop is 7.5:1, there is a possibility that you won't win with that hand. So, you want to make sure that if you are set mining your implied odds exceed the odds of you hitting your set (to compensate for your hit sets, and losses).

Someone please tell me if my math is wrong, I hope it is not; but I try to compensate for the fact that my math may be wrong by allowing for a big cushion in the calculate of the implied odds.

[travz21]

The maths is good enough.

Stack sizes is the most important factor of how I'm going to play a mid pocket pair. If people to my left all are shortstacked, I'm folding something like 55 in middle position. If everyone is deep stacked (200 bb+), I'll raise with it. If someone who is medium-shortstacked 2 to my right in UTG+1 3x it and I have 88, I'm just folding. Pocket pairs get people to spew away a lot of chips pf. If you're playing 1 table at a time, it might not seem like you're giving away much by calling or limping in those situations, but it really does hurt your winrate. On the other hand, if you can play these hands in position and isolate, pocket pairs don't have to be used for set mining, which is an easier way to make money, I think. Set mining is overrated now that there are so many nits out there.

[MikeyEl]

The maths is good enough.
On the other hand, if you can play these hands in position and isolate, pocket pairs don't have to be used for set mining, which is an easier way to make money, I think. Set mining is overrated now that there are so many nits out there.

I agree with this whole heartedly; stress placed HEAVILY on the "in position" portion.

Because of all the nits out there, one of my more common player notes is now, "set-miner" and i color code the player so that I know if they are betting/calling on more than one street, they have soemthing.

I used to abbreviate it as SM, but then my mind would wander to some of my other vices.