25NL: Tough spot for AKo

[MikeyEl]

Please note that SB has ~$5 in his stack after making this three-bet. Villain is running 38/16/40 with 5% 3-bet over only 70ish hands.

I find myself in similar situations a lot against shortstacks. Folding is retarded, Calling seems retarded too since villain is going to c-bet 100% of the time if he hits or misses, and that's going to be his entire stack.

Should I shove or cold call here?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


UTG ($4.30)
UTG+1 ($20.47)
MP1 ($26.13)
Hero (MP2) ($34.99)
CO ($14.84)
Button ($25)
SB ($8.26)
BB ($26.44)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
3 folds, Hero bets $0.85, 2 folds, SB raises to $3.25, 1 fold, Hero ???

[sjones403]

easy shove. Hopefully he has AA and you flop a straight because it's always funny when terrible things happen to small stacks.

[hockeyguy]

Please note that SB has ~$5 in his stack after making this three-bet. Villain is running 38/16/40 with 5% 3-bet over only 70ish hands.

I find myself in similar situations a lot against shortstacks. Folding is retarded, Calling seems retarded too since villain is going to c-bet 100% of the time if he hits or misses, and that's going to be his entire stack.

Should I shove or cold call here?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


UTG ($4.30)
UTG+1 ($20.47)
MP1 ($26.13)
Hero (MP2) ($34.99)
CO ($14.84)
Button ($25)
SB ($8.26)
BB ($26.44)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
3 folds, Hero bets $0.85, 2 folds, SB raises to $3.25, 1 fold, Hero ???

given villian stats and your own analysis he is going to bet no matter what the flop and be pot committed and folding is retarded you have answered your own question, folding is retarded and calling is retarded. must be a shove

but here is how i got to the same answer

PUSH PUSH PUSH, you are ahead of his range, you are only in trouble vs aa or kk which is unlikely given you have AK, while you are coin flip vs 22-qq that is if you go to showdown, you are on 33% to pair flop so if you call and wiff are you then going to call as a potential big underdog to any pair, tough decision.

Why let him put you in a tough spot when you can do it to him, lets say he has 77 (although i would expect 77 to just push and end hand preflop instead of raze like he did, i would expect qq aq aj type hands to make the smaller raze looking for action), easy 3 bet for him, but not neccessarily an auto call if you push, he has to know he is against at least 2 overs and possible bigger pair if you shove. Notice if you push he will certainly call with aq aj at kq kj (or possibly worse) which you dominate hoping you have 88 99 tt type hands and he could possibly fold 22 33 44 type hands that you actually trail fearing you have bigger pocket pair.

the combination of being ahead of his range and some non zero fold equity makes this an auto push imho

[travz21]

Shoves don't get much easier. 5% 3bet still puts him on a range you need to shove with AK. If he was 1% over 5k hands, then I'd fold.

[MikeyEl]

Thanks, I figured it was an easy shove. I just needed some reinforcement. I lost several coinflips in a row to shortstacks, so I was beginning to question the strategy.

[Wyte22]

two words:

SHIP IT!!!!!!!!!

[hockeyguy]

Thanks, I figured it was an easy shove. I just needed some reinforcement. I lost several coinflips in a row to shortstacks, so I was beginning to question the strategy.

been there, bad runs can cause self doubt

[MikeyEl]

Okay follow up question since everyone seems to agree that this is an easy ship. I'm going to play devil's advocate a bit and see what ranges make this a profitable move. I have a question at the end of this. Hope you make it through the math.

Lets say that this shortstack is pretty loose, and we put him on the 3-bet range of: AA-22; AK-A10o; Axs; Any Broadway Cards

Against our AKo we get the following:

%Win 57.08%
%Tie 5.58%
Odds 0.67 to 1

I think it is safe to say that is "fat" enough equity to shove, given the dead money already in the pot. But, is there anyone out there who is playing microstakes that feels there is even "fatter" value out there?

Now, what happens if we're facing a tight short stack (2% 3-bet all positions) and you can put him on a 3-bet range of: AA-22, AK-AQs, AKo

Against our AKo we get the following:

Win 39.23%
Tie 10.82%
Odds 1.24 to 1

YUCK!

Even if we give him a more realistic 3-bet range of: AA-22, AK-AJs, AK-AQo, KQs

Against our AKo we get:

%Win 44.09%
%Tie 9.85%
Odds 1.04 to 1

Notice that we're losing money even when our opponent's raising range only includes PPs and hands we tie and hands we dominate.

Last but not least, a typical (imo, please feel free to comment on this range) shortstacker's 3-bet from any position: AA-22, AK-AJs/o KQ-KJs/o QJs/o

Against our AKo we have:

%Win 51.50%
%Tie 7.05%
Odds 0.82 to 1

If we put villain on this type of range, does anyone feel that the equity in this move is too thin? (Especially since we know he's never folding.)

[travz21]

Why do you have AA-22 in your ranges? Besides the fact that fish won't 3bet that light normally, your ranges weren't matching up with your range %. The top 2% of hands is AA-TT, which AK would be about a 35% dog against.

The range I see most semi-shortstackers 3bet with is JJ+, AQs+, AQo+. AK is 50% against this range, making it an auto shove because of the dead money in the pot and because we still have some fold equity.

[MikeyEl]

I have AA-22 in the range because I've seen it recently from a guy I have 3k hands on and a 3-bet of 3%. Granted that was only once; but I've seen 55, 88 and 99 in the past week. I selected the ranges at random, which I guess I should not do when involving math with my thought process. I know applying math incorrectly can lead to some pretty disasterous results.

That being said, you address my main question at the end. If we're a coinflip to the range you give most shortstackers, and there is slim to nill fold equity, why are we shoving them all in? Isn't there fatter value out there for us? Aren't we just asking for bigger variance swings? We leak 3x BB v. flipping for ~38 BB.

[travz21]

When it's that close I usually err on the side of aggression, because most of the time villians' ranges are wider than we think. If you've seen him 3betting 55, 88, and 99, then we really need to shove. This gives AK a lot more fold equity, unless he never, ever folds his 3betted hands.