10NL: Absolutely Insane hand

[frob23]

I'm not claiming that I played this hand well. But it was funny as hell. As played, I figured I was getting it in good the majority of the time. And was really only afraid of AA. Well, and A-3 or 6-3 which were possible but not likely. Part of this was just the way this player had played. They might be shoving an over-pair here but it's not massively likely. I rather suspected this was a one pair hand at best... a lot of A-K type bluffing too. This player was a massively bluff heavy player. This could be a pure bluff with K-Jo with what I have previously seen. When his bluffs were factored in, and my coin-flip equity against most of his pairs, I felt that I was good against his shoving range. I don't really think he shoves A-3 or 6-3 mainly because he would try and trap me with a lot of those hands.

But with all that... I was just blown away with how far ahead I was in this hand. I'm also really glad it held up. LOL

Merge $0.05/$0.10NL Hold'em -- (9 players)
0: UTG+1: $10.25
1: MP1: $9.90
2: Villain (MP2): $12.79
3: MP3: $3.74
4: Hero (CO): $19.99
5: BTN: $7.01
6: SB: $15.88
7: BB: $8.14
8: UTG: $17.93

Saw Flop
Saw River

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 4 3
3 folds, Villain raises to $0.40, MP3 calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.75) 4 5 2 -- (4 players)
Villain bets $1.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.35, 1 fold, Villain raises to $12.39, Hero calls $7.04

Yes... I am totally the sort of player who will call a 3-bet shove with middle pair. Why do you ask?

Turn: ($26.53) 5 -- (2 players)

River: ($26.53) 5 -- (2 players)

Villain shows A 2 -- Full House, Fives Full of Twos
Hero shows 4 3 -- Full House, Fives Full of Fours

Hero wins $25.21 ($1.32 rake)

[C8H10N4O2]

Wow... I'm not sure I could have made that play without knowing the villain really well.

[frob23]

Wow... I'm not sure I could have made that play without knowing the villain really well.

1) I knew the villain really well. I actually made the call pre-flop because of a history of how he had played. I felt there was a good chance I could take this pot on the flop a lot of the time.

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2) On the flop, he's betting just about everything in his raising range. So I raise expecting him to fold a lot of his complete misses. So I felt the raise had some decent fold equity. I also expect the BTN to almost always miss this flop.

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3) Once he shoves, I am absolutely priced in with his range. Assume it's 22+ (sets, open-ended straight draw, and overpairs), A3+, 6-3, 6-4, 6-5, 7-6, 5-4, 5-2, 5-3, A-3, and AK, AQ. Basically, a bunch of pairs and straight draws, two pairs, and the high Aces. As well as the made straights, and the nut flush draw with a straight draw. And for good measure, we'll throw in KQ since he could also shove with the second nut flush draw. Yes, his range is that wide. Oh... toss A2 in there as well... lol... since that is apparently in his range.

He is crazy enough to 3-bet shove just about everything in this range. And, against it, I have 47.791% equity. And I think that he's not really all that wrong to assume my raise is meant to take this pot away a lot of the time. What could I possibly hit here? I didn't reraise pre-flop so I am not supposed to have a big pair. Am I really able to call a shove with a hand like 8-8? There are hands that I could raise on this flop and not want to call a shove with. Of course, my raise is really large and he should realize that I've committed a lot of chips and his fold equity might not be as much as he really expects.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.791% 45.00% 02.79% 85542 5299.00 { 4c3c }
Hand 1: 52.209% 49.42% 02.79% 93940 5299.00 { 22+, AQs+, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, A3s-A2s, KdQd, 76s, 65s, 63s, 52s+, AQo+, A3o-A2o, 76o, 65o, 63o, 52o+ }

The pot is $19.49 after his shove and I need to call $7.04 (2.77-1). I need 26.53% equity to make a break-even call. I'm getting more than that, so I have to call. I expect to be behind a lot of the time when I make this call (A-2 is the best possible hand for me to actually be against) but still show a profit.

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Was it the best play that got me in that spot? Probably not. I had my reasons for doing it though. He was opening about 60-70% of his hands and continuation betting just about all of them. So I felt that my initial raise had a lot of equity too. But against the shove... I also had equity against just about anything this crazy player was likely to be holding.

[travz21]

I don't think he will be betting his entire pf range on this flop while it's 4 handed unless he's pure spew. And if he is complete spew, I'm not sure I like getting it in on this flop while his range is so wide.

It's a good spot to use your fold equity, but I seriously doubt he's folding an overpair ever or making this move with overs or a gutshot. Pretty good situation if you're playing tighter players and you know their range can't include sets or straights and they are able to make laydowns post flop. Try this move at nl50 or higher.

Edit: I didn't see that you included his hand lol. A2cc. nh villain.

[ballboy75]

I think this is call that you have to make only if you really know your opponent, as you claim you did. In this particular hand, the villain played rather foolishly in my mind and I would have put him on a low pair like 6's -8's.
I would not have expected that big a raise with A2, nor would I have expected him to shuve all in, unless he thought you were bullying him around and trying to steal his chips each time.
I personally wouldnt have made the call there. As i said before, I would really need to know my opponents before making a call like this seeing as I would doubt your pair being any goo, thus you are relying on 8 straight outs and a very low back door flush, which in this case would have failed you (although in this situation the flush draw didnt turn out to be very substancial).
If i may ask a theoretical question....how do you think the hand would have played out if you had only called on the flop?
we obviously cant know if the button would have called the intial flop raise but i ten to think he wouldnt have.
seeing as this player shuved on you, I believe the hand wouldnt have ended up the same way, although i wonder if caution might have been the way to go on the flop.
I mean this in no way as judgement, just as a question.
ohh and...congrats on the hand, a nice hunk of change.

[frob23]

I don't think he will be betting his entire pf range on this flop while it's 4 handed unless he's pure spew. And if he is complete spew, I'm not sure I like getting it in on this flop while his range is so wide.

Complete spew is a good description of this player. In previous hands where 6 people saw a flop... he still continuation bet anyway... and folded to a raise. So I know he's capable of doing it. His continuation bet rate is about 100%. I think the only time he didn't do it was after flopping top two pair and he tried for a check-raise.

[frob23]

I think this is call that you have to make only if you really know your opponent, as you claim you did. In this particular hand, the villain played rather foolishly in my mind and I would have put him on a low pair like 6's -8's.
[...]
I personally wouldnt have made the call there. As i said before, I would really need to know my opponents before making a call like this seeing as I would doubt your pair being any goo, thus you are relying on 8 straight outs and a very low back door flush, which in this case would have failed you (although in this situation the flush draw didnt turn out to be very substancial).

Once I've put in that much money, my pair no longer needs to be good for the call to be correct. Even if my opponent has KK, I have to call since I still have 47.2% equity in the hand and am getting the right price to call. Even against AA (which takes away a ton of my outs) has me at 32.9% equity... still the right price.

Even against 5-5 (which is really ugly), I have 26.8% equity when I only need 26.53% to call... making it much closer but still right to call. I'm really only crushed if he flopped the straight.

And, I have my eight straight outs as well as my two trip out and my three two pair outs. So I have about 13 outs. Of course, some of those outs are dirty... meaning they might not be good against some of the hands he's probably betting. If he has AA (for example), a 3 will no longer help me.

If i may ask a theoretical question....how do you think the hand would have played out if you had only called on the flop?
we obviously cant know if the button would have called the intial flop raise but i ten to think he wouldnt have.
seeing as this player shuved on you, I believe the hand wouldnt have ended up the same way, although i wonder if caution might have been the way to go on the flop.
I mean this in no way as judgement, just as a question.
ohh and...congrats on the hand, a nice hunk of change.

I don't play 4-high against a player like this with the plan of calling a bet on the flop. I play this hand with the full intent to maximize my equity against someone over-playing too many hands out of position (as this opponent was doing). And the way I maximize is to raise his flop continuation bet or bet if he checks to me... almost regardless of the flop. There are a few where it's just too likely someone has something -- especially with 4 people to it. In those cases, I fold and wait for another time.

This is a pure raise/fold spot for me. But, pretend I call. Pot on the turn would be $4.15 and this guy would bet about $3.20 or something around that area... based on his previous play in other hands. My equity would have nose dived against his two barrel range. And the bet would be fairly large compared to the size of the remaining stacks. I probably would have been forced to fold at that point. If I call, I am almost certainly going to face a less than pot-sized shove on the end. And it's worse because I could hit and still not know if I am good enough to call that. If the river was a 3 and he shoves... he could be shoving AA or 66... or even 7-6... and I am getting stacked when I call. If the river is an Ace... he could shove A-K... which I beat... but he could also shove AA... which stacks me.

My river play becomes really murky and difficult. I can't face a decent sized shove in a large pot with the sort of hands he's likely to bet 3-times here. I'm ahead of a lot of them (assuming I hit)... but not really ahead of enough of them to want to get my money in.

[ballboy75]

i dont want this to sound disrespectfull or anything and i ask it out of pure curiousity.
You talk a lot about equity and I see your point but can oyu really calculate all those factors and variables in the little amount of time that is given to you?
I know i cant.

[frob23]

i dont want this to sound disrespectfull or anything and i ask it out of pure curiousity.
You talk a lot about equity and I see your point but can oyu really calculate all those factors and variables in the little amount of time that is given to you?
I know i cant.

Exact equity, no I can't. But estimated equity, yes.

Against most of his 1 pair hands, I am 50/50. Against his semi-bluffs like, AK and AQ, I am a larger favorite (say 2-1 favorite) and against the sets, I am a 2-1 dog... assuming he doesn't bluff much... the odds of it being a bluff or a set are about equal. That means everything is roughly 50/50. At the time... that is how I figured it was looking. I knew I could be wrong and over-estimating the times I am ahead and that he could have a stronger hand more than I expect (it happens even against the most insane maniacs) but with pot odds of over 2.5-1 and nearly 3-1 (those are the numbers I was able to figure in the moment)... I probably have enough overlay against his entire range to call.

I really thought that most of the time he was going to show up with a medium to big pair here... or a hand like two overs and a flush draw. That means I expected to be a slight dog but still close to 50/50.

It's really hard to find a fold with a hand like this (pair and open-ended straight) when being offered better than 2-1 pot odds. You have to know you're drawing just about dead and be absolutely sure of your read.

I play a lot of the strong draws like this (as Dew can attest, I am rather fond of them) and I am familiar with their equity against most common hand ranges. While I might not know it to the decimal point, I am fairly familiar with about how much I am ahead/behind. And know it's often not much. There are a lot of quick assumptions that are made in a hand like this. Most based on previous hands.