Tough Live Hand

[frecklers]

Stacks Hero 26000
Villain 45000

8 players

Blinds 400 / 800 running Ante 50

No significant reads on Villain other than to say he looks and talks like a tricky / tough opponent.


Villain Flats in MP

Hero on C/O raises to 2450 AQ Spades

Flop K 5 10 rainbow (no spades)


Villain Checks
Hero bets 4500
Villain Calls

Turn 10

Villain Checks
Hero Checks

River 8 (No flush possibility)

Villain Bets 12000

(NB: The bet on the river was odd as he opted to push in a very large stack of 500's instead of any of his higher value chips) I also felt that the bet was oversized for value, given I had indicated some weakness on the turn.


I have A high....Should I call or Fold.... or Come over the top

[travz21]

Pretty easy fold. Don't know why you'd think anything else.

[HeyKidMove]

Definitely fold. On the river you have 19050 left. Obv, you're not getting him to fold anything on the river. Calling leaves you pretty short stacked if you're wrong, so I don't think a case can be made for anything but folding.

[frecklers]

Pretty easy fold. Don't know why you'd think anything else.

OK I'll try and explain my thought process at the time.

I have seen the guy play a few hands before and he is raising or folding in this situation with A10, AK, KQ and bigger PP's 99 1010 etc. so I figure I can eliminate these hands. I therefore have him on something like K10s, KJs, J10, QJ or smaller PP's maybe other suited connectors with the pre flop action.

edit to say ....when i said raising or folding I am referring specifically to KQ and A10 i.e. he would just bin or he would raise them.

I expect him to lead out on this board with KJ and J10 amd I expect him to check fold his smaller PP's. When he check calls the flop I am leaning heavily towards QJ i.e. up and down draw. The action might also suit J10 and K10.

He checks the turn to me when the 10 comes...No real additional information, although if he puts me on the K then he should be trying to value bet with any 10 really IMO (only real chance to get my stack in by the river)

I check the turn, which is likely to induce a bluff and will certainly be seen as weak by my opponent.

So I am figuring him for K10, J10 and QJ and QJ is looking like the favourite, given the fact he makes no attempt to gain value on the turn. He could be slow playing me or hoping to check raise the turn, but unless he's an idiot, he should know that I am unlikely to bet the turn unless the 10 hit me.

When the river comes an effective blank, he opts to shove in a large and very visual bet. Why would he do this? If he wants a call surely he would size the bet to tempt me given the weakness displayed on the turn. Also, why make the bet so visual, he could have thrown in 3 or 4 large denomination chips?

I am sure at this point that IF he had hung around with any K he would have been happy to check down or make a very small bet for value. K10 or J10 again he might make this bet (unlikely IMO) as again I expect him to make the bet a bit more enticing.

QJ fits all the criteria and he almost certainly would make a big bet with this hand. He is drawing on the flop, gets a free river card and bets out as a bluff when his draw busts, having seen weakness from me on the turn.

Any other smaller pairs that he may have floated are likely to check this one down. Unless of course he had pocket 88 and hit his boat, in which case I would again expect a smaller VB.

To conclude I am leaning heavily towards a river bluff, which is supported by the style and size of his bet. He is certainly the type of player who would make this type of play.

The reason I mention coming over the top here is that I could get away without showing down if he is bluffing.

A lot to think about here.....Is my thought process flawed???

[travz21]

It's not flawed, but there isn't much point trying to logic out what could or most likely isn't going on in a fish's head. You have almost 0 showdown value unless you put him on a busted straight draw. It wouldn't really even cross my mind to do anything but fold this in a cash game, much less a tourney. A wrong call would severely hurt your chances of winning. And you'd be wrong a lot of the time, I think. Folding gives you a much better chance of winning.

[travz21]

And I noticed you said "expect" a lot in your response. In our OP you said he was a tricky player. You shouldn't expect the norm with these guys. He probably has fancy play syndrome and has kings over tens.

[frecklers]

I must admit Travs that if this was an online hand I would insta fold without a second thought. What struck me with this hand was the style and the size of the bet on the end.

I would say that betting in this way is a pretty common weak tell....What I couldn;t decipher was whether he was good enough to throw out a false tell and TBH I hadn't played anywhere near enough hands wt this table to make a firm jusdgement.

I was pretty certain I had him pinned though for QJ on this occasion !!

Having dwelled for some time at the table the clock was put on me by another player...Probably not a bad thing as I was really going nowhere much further in the mental process...I folded and said "Show me your QJ" and he did lol.

I had to go out for a smoke to calm down...knocked me off my stride for 10 minutes or so!!!


I think I was right to fold though, given the circumstances. I might also have checked behind on the flop and made my bet on the turn instead, plus taken a free card to complete my own draw.

I usually don't mind folding the winner if I am in doubt, however on this occasion I was so convinced he was bluffing I felt gutted I didn't go with my read.

[travz21]

Sometimes you just gotta go with your gut I guess haha. Because nothing else really dictates a call in my mind.

[phaul]

The cbet seems quite large.

[frecklers]

The Cbet was a little large I agree. Although I do not like the idea of making weake half pot bets if I am normally betting around 3/4 pot.

[phaul]

3/4 is large seeing as it's a bluff most of the time. I normally make it 2/3 pot or just under.

[travz21]

I didn't really notice that. Betting 70% pot in tourneys is pretty big, but it's not really that bad. I tend to make my bets around 55% pot in tourneys.