Hand Analysis of Scary Flop

Thread: Hand Analysis of Scary Flop

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  1. Silent_Ac3s said:

    Default Hand Analysis of Scary Flop

    Stage #C135881185: Holdem No Limit $1 - 2010-08-17 22:31:25 (ET)
    Table: PORT HURON (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
    Seat 4 - NUTZONCHIN ($258.45 in chips)
    Seat 5 - OUTFLOPED ($90 in chips)
    Seat 6 - ANDMUNN ($216.35 in chips)
    Seat 1 - BALDGUY1966 ($69.75 in chips)
    Seat 2 - SILENT_AC3S ($122.80 in chips)
    Seat 3 - KITTENFIRE ($122.50 in chips)
    OUTFLOPED - Posts small blind $0.50
    ANDMUNN - Posts big blind $1
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to SILENT_AC3S [7d 7h]
    BALDGUY1966 - Calls $1
    SILENT_AC3S - Raises $4.50 to $4.50
    KITTENFIRE - Folds
    NUTZONCHIN - Folds
    OUTFLOPED - Calls $4
    ANDMUNN - Calls $3.50
    BALDGUY1966 - Calls $3.50
    *** FLOP *** [8c 7s 10s]
    OUTFLOPED - Checks
    ANDMUNN - Checks
    BALDGUY1966 - Checks
    SILENT_AC3S - Bets $12.50
    OUTFLOPED - Calls $12.50
    ANDMUNN - Folds
    BALDGUY1966 - All-In(Raise) $65.25 to $65.25
    ????

    I already know I would like my flop bet to be a little higher in this situation next time.
    Only 15 hands on OUTFLOPED, so not much information there. Only 17 hands on BALDGUY1966, but his stats were 29 VPIP with a 0 PFR, mainly trying to see flops and get out after missing.
    What do you do with your bottom set on this board with two other players showing interest?

    I'll say my opinion after I get a couple responses. Thanks
  2. travz21's Avatar

    travz21 said:

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    Snapperoo.

    Flop sizing is fine. Maybe too big imo. As long as you're pricing out flush and straight draws you're fine. I think a lot of people put too much emphasis on betting really big on these types of boards, which shouldn't always be the case. You could fold out Tx, JJ, all draws, etc. You want people to call as long as you're giving them a bad price. With that said, there are 2 other people in the pot, and any cbet is going to look strong with this board.

    If you put BALDGUY exactly on J9 or 96 we are neutral EV if we call and OUTFLOPED folds. We need ~33% to make this call. If BALDGUY only ships with sets and straights here, we're in trouble. But seriously, we have set on a board that's drawy where people can semibluff. It's not even 1 buyin. If BALDGUY ships with anything other than sets and straights we need to immediately call.
    Think for yourself. Question authority.
  3. phaul said:

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    Shove. Even against an uber-tight range you're getting odds and he clearly doesn't know how to play, so could be doing this with AT or anything. I'm not too worried about OUTFLOPED's hand either, and I don't think there's many times when he calls if you flat but folds when you shove.
  4. irishpkr said:

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    Without wishing to sound like I'm oversimplifying things...we have a set in a squeeze situation. Arrrr-in. We're also only $90 deep with the other dude so its not like we're gonna be put to the test for several hundred BBs (imagine you flat and then get shoved on for 200BB)
  5. grimReaper's Avatar

    grimReaper said:

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    I don't play 100NL, but I don't know what I'm missing. This is an easy call.

    Baldguy isn't topped off and open limps, which suggests fishiness, maybe KK/AA? Anyway, if in these spots he has J9s, 69s, 88 (I assume he'd raise TT), 9Ts, 89s, 8Ts, AA, KK, AKspades, you beat 63% of those hands.

    edit: lol, well, more importantly you're 62% against that range.
  6. phaul said:

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    Quote Originally Posted by grimReaper View Post
    Baldguy isn't topped off and open limps, which suggests fishiness, maybe KK/AA? Anyway, if in these spots he has J9s, 69s, 88 (I assume he'd raise TT), 9Ts, 89s, 8Ts, AA, KK, AKspades,
    You assume he'd raise TT but could have AA or KK??!
  7. grimReaper's Avatar

    grimReaper said:

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    Quote Originally Posted by phaul View Post
    You assume he'd raise TT but could have AA or KK??!
    Not the way I've seen fish play. "I have TT, a good hand but I must protect it, it's very vulnerable. Raise."

    Though he would've 4 bet w/ two callers behind pfr w/ KK+.
  8. Silent_Ac3s said:

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    Alright guys, I understand the snap shove here more now, which is what I did in this situation. BALDGUY turned over Ks9s and OUTFLOPED called my shove with A8s I believe. Not to mention I did win the hand after turning a full house
    I've just been looking for a spot where folding a set on the flop is the best play, and haven't been able to find it lol.
    Thanks everybody for the responses
  9. travz21's Avatar

    travz21 said:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Ac3s View Post
    I've just been looking for a spot where folding a set on the flop is the best play, and haven't been able to find it lol.
    Not gonna happen.
    Think for yourself. Question authority.
  10. sup_mario said:

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    When Flop comes out, it's already a sure win. lol
  11. FlipCoach's Avatar

    FlipCoach said:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Ac3s View Post
    I've just been looking for a spot where folding a set on the flop is the best play, and haven't been able to find it lol.
    Thanks everybody for the responses
    Yeah try not to be ultra nitty. If you're looking for places to fold sets, then you probably have other huge leaks in your game where you're getting run over.

    So get the log out of your eye, then deal with the speck.

    In this spot specifically, even if you're 80% sure he has the nutstraight, I'm still snap calling b/c of the pot odds (and bc I run like God), and now the nut flush draw is priced in so you're gaining some additional equity there as well.
    Flipcoach

    "Not losing money is the same thing as winning it", Max Power 2004
  12. NY_Maverick said:

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    firstly who is this Max Power that you refer to, and secondly when do pot odds completley over ride wether you call or fold if you think your behind? like 3:1, 4:1? or does it depend on the situation?
  13. travz21's Avatar

    travz21 said:

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    Quote Originally Posted by NY_Maverick View Post
    firstly who is this Max Power that you refer to, and secondly when do pot odds completley over ride wether you call or fold if you think your behind? like 3:1, 4:1? or does it depend on the situation?
    It depends on your equity in the hand vs. the ranges of the others in the hand. If you are sitting at 33% to win, you need 33% (2 to 1) pot odds. If you have pot odds equal to or better than that, you should be calling if you have proper bankroll management and can suffer the variance of short term.
    Think for yourself. Question authority.
  14. Max Weiss said:

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    Get it in and high five your monitor, but not too hard, because then you'd break it and the cost of buying a new monitor might turn the play into a fold. But generally speaking, get it in in that spot and be thrilled about it.