What should be the bottom of my shoving range?

[Fabrizio]

The game is: No-limit Hold'em/ Buy-in:10$/ 180 players
Blinds: 750/1500 Ante: 300
My stack: 10420
Big blind stack: 8430
I am playing in the later stages of an online tournament. The hand is folded around to me in the small blind. The big blind is a tight player.

What should be the bottom of my shoving range?

[travz21]

It depends on his calling range. I don't feel like doing any maths, but I'm guessing somewhere around J7o.

[FlipCoach]

The game is: No-limit Hold'em/ Buy-in:10$/ 180 players
Blinds: 750/1500 Ante: 300
My stack: 10420
Big blind stack: 8430
I am playing in the later stages of an online tournament. The hand is folded around to me in the small blind. The big blind is a tight player.

What should be the bottom of my shoving range?

Any two cards. If you have like 5 BB effective stacks (with the ante), and the player is tight, you should never, ever fold or limp. Shove everything.

Seriously.

[travz21]

I don't know. Just because he's tight doesn't mean he's not going to call with a really wide range with only 5bbs left. He needs to fold, what, like 70% of the time if we are shoving any two? Off the top of my head.

[frob23]

It depends on his calling range. I don't feel like doing any maths, but I'm guessing somewhere around J7o.

Well, based just on the Sklansky-Chubukov numbers... J7o is better than we need to shove here. The exact hand is harder to say because I am not sure if these are stacks after posting the blinds or before and the number of people at the table. The antes make it more profitable to shove lighter. Still, we have around 11.24 small blinds here (effective stacks) and we can shove 12.66 SB for a profit even without the antes. With the antes, the hand becomes that much better... so J7o is not the bottom.

With the antes it's probably like T6o or around there... possibly even a little worse. J4o, T3s, 97o... all these are probably well within the border of hands we can profitably shove. It's when we get near T2o and those hands that I think we're really hitting the edge of our profitable range. But even then, these numbers represent the worst case scenario (when a player plays perfectly against you and always calls when they have odds and always folds when they don't)... since we can assume some players will call too often or fold too often... it's conservative to say T6o is the worst. But it's a pretty good example of just how lightly we can be shoving correctly here.

Anyway... here's the chart... http://www2.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html ... these are worst case numbers (measured in small blinds)... addition of antes and the fact that the BB doesn't have perfect knowledge of your hand means you can often shove profitably with more SBs than the chart indicates.

Edit: We probably could get away with shoving any two cards if the player is generally unaware of how light we should be shoving. But if they have any clue at all, I'm folding stuff like 32o, 62o, 43o and the like.

[travz21]

Let's be honest, what does Sklansky really know about poker?

[frob23]

LOL... J7o was a really good off the top of the head guess for the range though. Doubly so since you claim to have not run any of the numbers. But, truth be told, we can shove worse than that.

Sklansky is just a tiny bit better than I am.

[grimReaper]

Once I finish my calculator, I'll give you an exact range, but J7o does seem pretty tight. A lot of your equity from shoving there is fold equity, not hand equity (want to see the math?). So if BB is tight, shove ATC w/ no regrets.

If BB is good, and by good meaning he'll call w/ at least the top 50% of his range, decreasing the equity of my move, then I'll shove top 70% (but I could be wrong on this last part, b/c the increase in my hand equity may be less beneficial than the decrease in fold equity). Again, let me finish my calculator.

[Nate]

I would definitely shove any two here. It's suboptimal if BB plays perfectly, but that would also mean that he has to call with stuff like Q6, which I really don't see happening. Most players (especially in a $10 tournament) make the mistake of calling way too tightly. They are naturally terrified of "putting their tournament life at risk," and good players can take advantage of that by pushing them all in.

[Max Weiss]

If he folds more than 55% of the time, you should be shoving ATC.